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Traditionally, luxury outerwear has driven big business for luxury brands and retailers in the fourth quarter. But with luxury spending proving less predictable, temperatures remaining tame and longtime outerwear leaders falling out of favor, the success of the category this year is less certain. Fashion companies are answering the challenge by releasing fresh, but non-trendy takes on best-selling styles. What’s at stake includes the chance to win consumers restricting their splurging to one great style for the cold-weather seasons.